BOXING: Pacquiao Must Be Aggressive To Beat Mayweather

In most sports, numbers often tell a large part of the story. Look at a baseball box score and if a team only had two hits and struck out 14 times, that team probably didn't win. If a quarterback throws four interceptions, or four touchdowns, the math is pretty easy, and more times than not the corresponding win/loss result will apply. We evaluate performances largely by the numbers.

But what about boxing? Perhaps no sport is less tethered to statistics than the sweet science. We remember specific fights in generalities and nostalgia, but no number was, or is, attached to Ali-Frazier. We remember Mike Tyson laid out on the canvas in Tokyo, but how many times have you heard someone talk about Buster Douglas' work rate that evening? How many punches he threw? How many he landed?


You just don't hear as much about the numbers of a fight, so when Al Bernstein told me that Manny Pacquiao needs to throw at least 800 punches to defeat Floyd Mayweather Jr., I wondered if that work rate was an actual benchmark for success.

According to CompuBox, 90 percent of fighters who throw and land more punches ultimately win a fight.

To that seemingly obvious point, Pacquiao threw 669 punches against Chris Algieri, landing 229 (34 percent). The Filipino icon threw 727 punches against Shane Mosley, landing 224 (31 percent). And in perhaps his most impressive fight, against Miguel Cotto, Pac Man threw 780 punches, landing 336 (43 percent). Those are all high, and efficient, work rates, and incidentally Pacquiao won all those fights.

There is an exception to that rule. In his first fight against Timothy Bradley, Pacquiao threw 751 punches, landing 253 punches to Bradley's 190. Yet Pacquiao lost, to the collective indignity of everyone in the building, except the three judges.

Still, it seems that while not a precise science, punch counts are a fair barometer of who won a fight, and to Bernstein's point, it may be even more important for Pacquiao to throw a high number of punches against Mayweather. Because if history tells us anything, he won't be landing them at a very efficient rate.

Mayweather's defensive mastery is common knowledge, but the actual numbers tell an even more impressive story. Consider the fight that smashed most of the monetary metrics, Mayweather vs Canelo Alvarez, in which Alvarez, who was larger and much younger than Mayweather at the time, only managed to land 117 (22 percent) of his 526 punches. He didn't punch enough, he certainly didn't land enough, and he lost.

Mayweather's game, by contrast, isn't one of volume. He doesn't have to throw as many punches because his efficiency is off the charts. According to a 2012 article on ESPN.com -- which sampled his prior nine fights, deemed to be Mayweather's prime years -- Mayweather landed 46 percent of his punches, while being hit with only 16 percent of his opponents' punches.

His astonishing plus/minus connect rating of plus-30 percent matches up with any fighter in any era. Against Robert Guerrero, in 2013, Mayweather threw 105 fewer punches than his opponent (476 to 581) while landing close to 100 more (195 to 113). Even when a fighter seemingly gives Mayweather fits, he isn't landing at even a modest clip. Miguel Cotto, whom many think gave Mayweather his toughest battle, threw 506 punches and landed just 105 (21 percent).

The numbers have decreased a little over the years, making Mayweather a little more vulnerable. But not by much. Mayweather's blueprint of letting his opponent punch himself out is more than battle tested. Throwing punches for the sake of throwing punches only hurts one fighter, and it isn't Mayweather. Still, Pacquiao had better stay seriously busy Saturday night. If he beats the odds and lands a large percentage of his punches, all the better. But not a single number indicates he can depend on that.

It is true, however, that Pacquiao will likely test Mayweather in ways he's never been tested. Mayweather didn't fight the Four Kings -- Leonard, Duran, Hagler, and Hearns. Many argue that Pacquiao is the first Mayweather opponent to be a surefire Hall-of-Fame fighter close to his peak. (Oscar De La Hoya and Shane Mosley were deep into the back-nine of their careers when they fought Mayweather.)

There's also the reality that Mayweather is no longer in his prime, though it's hard to parse his brand of pugilism when he's still undefeated. Even if he's seeing a five-percent bump in punches taken, the number is still microscopic, and his defense is still nearly impregnable. The numbers, as they say, don't often lie. If Pacquiao wants to be the one with his arms raised at the end of Saturday night, has to be stay seriously busy along the way. If he does what nobody else has been able to do and lands a large percentage, all the better. But he can't depend on that. If he's going to rewrite the narrative and unlock the vault of Mayweather's vaunted defense, he'll have to do it one punch at a time.